Boeing Receives First 737 MAX Orders in 2020
by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent, Forecast International.
Boeing and Airbus delivered 13 and 39 commercial jets in August 2020, compared to 18 and 42 deliveries, respectively, in the same month last year. With just 87 deliveries this year to date, Boeing is 189 shipments behind last year’s total for the first eight months of the year. Airbus delivered a total of 284 jets from January to August, compared to 500 during the same period last year. Boeing’s deliveries have suffered for many months in the aftermath of two 737 MAX crashes and the subsequent suspension of deliveries and grounding of the fleet. Deliveries of 737 MAX aircraft have been on hold since March 2019. Due to COVID-19, both manufacturers were forced to temporarily close down production facilities and have also laid off thousands of employees and announced significant production rate cuts. For the full year 2019, Boeing delivered 380 aircraft, while Airbus set a new all-time annual record, handing over 863 jets. Prior to this, Boeing had retained a deliveries lead over Airbus since 2012. In 2018, Boeing delivered 806 jets (763 in 2017), with Airbus handing over 800 (718 in 2017).
In August, Boeing delivered 13 aircraft, including two 737NGs, four 767s, three 777s and four 787s. Production of the 737 MAX was suspended from January of this year until the end of May. On May 27, Boeing announced it had resumed production of the 737 MAX in Renton. Aircraft are being built at a low rate. Boeing expects the 737 MAX production rate to gradually increase to 31 per month by the beginning of 2022, with further increases as market demand allows. Boeing has also announced that the 787 production rate is being reduced from 14 per month (rate at the start of the year) to just six per month during 2021. The combined 777/777X production rate will be reduced to two per month in 2021. Production rate assumptions have not changed for the 747 and 767 programs. Prior to the 737 MAX production suspension, Boeing was manufacturing the jet at a reduced rate of 42 per month. The company has built about 450 737 MAX jets during the grounding and is targeting delivery of more than half of those in the first 12 months following re-certification. While the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has repeatedly stated that it has no timetable for the aircraft’s return to service, the 737 MAX is expected to remain grounded at least until fall. Boeing currently hopes to get the 737 MAX flying again commercially by early 2021. In any case, it will be a few years before Boeing is able to hit the originally planned monthly production rate of 57 aircraft. Prior to the suspension of deliveries in March 2019, Boeing had produced and shipped 387 737 MAX jets.
Between June 29 and July 1 this year, a number of 737 MAX certification flight tests were carried out by Boeing and the FAA to evaluate Boeing’s proposed changes to the automated flight control system. Following the flights, the FAA announced that, while this was an important milestone, a number of key tasks remain. These include a number of evaluation reviews and reports issued by the FAA and by the Joint Operations Evaluation Board (JOEB), which includes international partners from Canada, Europe, and Brazil. Next, a Continued Airworthiness Notification to the International Community (CANIC) and an Airworthiness Directive (AD) will be issued, followed by the official ungrounding of the aircraft. On August 3, a key milestone was reached when the FAA released a 36-page document in which it proposes a new AD that will allow the aircraft to return to service. The document lists four design changes, including the installation of new flight control computer software, revising the existing flight manual to incorporate new and revised flight crew procedures, the installation of new display system software, and changing the horizontal stabilizer trim wire routing installations. The FAA’s review of the 737 MAX has involved 40 engineers, inspectors, pilots, and technical support staff who have logged more than 60,000 hours of review, certification testing, and evaluation. The FAA says it analyzed more than 4,000 hours of Boeing’s flight and simulator tests, and did 50 hours of its own testing. The Canadian regulatory body, Transport Canada, finished its 737 MAX flight tests on August 27, with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) completing its tests on September 11.
In August, Airbus delivered 39 jets, including 35 A320s (3 CEO / 32 NEO), two A330s and two A350s. Prior to COVID-19, Airbus was targeting a 5 percent A320 rate increase to 63 jets per month from 2021, and was also discussing a further ramp-up with its supply chain that could have brought the production rate up to as high as 67 aircraft per month, or 804 per year, by 2023. This would have put the company within reach of a total of 1,000 jet deliveries per year. These plans have now been shelved. For the full year 2019, Airbus handed over 642 A320 family aircraft, of which 551 were NEOs, while also delivering a record 112 A350s.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Airbus has cut production on several programs and is looking to hold underlying jet output at 40 percent below pre-pandemic plans for two years. The A320 production rate has been reduced to 40 aircraft per month, down from an average of over 53 aircraft per month in 2019. The A330 and A350 programs are reduced to a rate of two and six aircraft per month, respectively. No rate cut has been announced for the A220 or A380. On June 30, Airbus announced it plans to cut 14,000 jobs (5,000 in France, 5,100 in Germany, 900 in Spain, 1,700 in the U.K. and 1,300 elsewhere) as it deals with the effects of the coronavirus crisis. In the meantime, by the end of the year, Boeing expects to have reduced its global workforce by 10 percent, or 16,000 employees. In the U.S., 12,300 jobs will be cut, including nearly 10,000 in Washington alone. Recently, Boeing carried out a second round of layoffs involving an additional 1,030 employees that left the company by the end of August. In connection with the release of the company’s second quarter earnings on July 29, Boeing announced that further job cuts are being considered and a second round of voluntary layoffs will be offered.
Turning to the orders race, in August, Boeing received orders for a total of eight jets, including three 737 MAX (737-8) narrowbodies for Polish charter airline Enter Air and three 737 MAX aircraft for an undisclosed customer – the first MAX orders since November. Boeing also booked an order for three 777 freighters for EVA Air, a Taiwanese international airline. However, in August, the company also reported 17 737 MAX cancellations. Year-to-date, Boeing has accumulated 67 gross orders (445 cancellations => -378 net new orders). For the full year 2019, Boeing booked 243 gross orders (330 cancellations => -87 net new orders). For the full year 2018, Boeing booked 893 net new orders and 1,008 gross orders.
In August, Airbus booked an order from an undisclosed customer for a single A320neo. For 2020 to date, Airbus has accumulated 370 gross orders (67 cancellations => net of 303). For the full year 2019, Airbus landed 1,131 gross orders (363 cancellations => net of 768), thereby retaking the orders crown from Boeing. In 2018, Airbus booked a total of 747 net new orders and 831 gross orders, thereby losing the 2018 orders race. Prior to this, Airbus had retained an orders lead over its rival every year since 2012.
At the end of August, Airbus reported a backlog of 7,501 jets, of which 6,615, or 88 percent, were A220 and A320ceo/neo family narrowbodies. This is 224 aircraft below the company’s all-time backlog record of 7,725 aircraft set in January 2020. By the end of August 2020, Boeing’s backlog (total unfilled orders before ASC 606 adjustment) was 5,160 aircraft, of which 4,164, or 81 percent, were 737 NG/MAX narrowbody jets. Boeing’s all-time backlog high of 5,964 aircraft was set in August 2018. The number of Airbus aircraft to be built and delivered represents 8.7 years of shipments at the 2019 production level. In comparison, Boeing’s backlog would “only” last 6.4 years at the 2018 level, which we use as a proxy for 2019 due to the severe drop in 737 MAX deliveries. This year to date, Boeing’s book-to-bill ratio, calculated as net new orders divided by deliveries, is negative due to cancellations exceeding gross orders. Airbus’ book-to-bill ratio is 1.07, thanks mainly to very strong order bookings in January. In 2019, Boeing’s book-to-bill ratio was negative, while Airbus reported a book-to-bill of 0.89.
2020 Forecast
Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System is a breakthrough in forecasting technology that provides 15-year production forecasts. The author has used the Platinum Forecast System to retrieve the latest delivery forecasts and, for 2020, Forecast International’s analysts currently expect Boeing and Airbus to deliver 218 and 478 commercial jets, respectively.
Note: Boeing 777-300ER orders include one 777-200LR. The 777-300ER backlog includes two 777-200LRs.
References:
- http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries
- https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html
- https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=93206
- https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/737-max-update.page
- https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-releases-statements?item=130724
- https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-releases-statements?item=130713
- https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-07-29-Boeing-Reports-Second-Quarter-Results
- https://www.easa.europa.eu/newsroom-and-events/news/easa-completes-its-boeing-737-max-test-flights
- https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/boeing-plans-deeper-job-cuts-with-new-voluntary-buyout-offer-1.1481349
- https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/boeing-737-max-moves-toward-return-1.1492525
- https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/512758-boeing-receives-first-737-max-orders-since-november
- https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53646442
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Based in Denmark, Joakim Kasper Oestergaard is Forecast International’s AeroWeb and PowerWeb Webmaster and European Editor. In 2008, he came up with the idea for what would eventually evolve into AeroWeb. Mr. Oestergaard is an expert in aerospace & defense market intelligence, fuel efficiency in civil aviation, defense spending and defense programs. He has an affiliation with Terma Aerostructures A/S in Denmark – a leading manufacturer of composite and metal aerostructures for the F-35 Lightning II. Mr. Oestergaard has a Master’s Degree in Finance and International Business from the Aarhus School of Business – Aarhus University in Denmark.
A military history enthusiast, Richard began at Forecast International as editor of the World Weapons Weekly newsletter. As the Internet grew in importance as a research tool, he helped design the company's Forecast Intelligence Center and currently coordinates the EMarket Alert newsletters for clients. Richard also manages social media efforts, including two new blogs: Defense & Security Monitor, covering defense systems and international issues, and Flight Plan, which focuses on commercial aviation and space systems. For over 30 years, Richard has authored the Defense & Aerospace Companies, Volume I (North America) and Volume II (International) services. The two books provide detailed data on major aerospace and defense contractors. He also edits the International Contractors service, a database that tracks all the contractors involved in the programs covered in the FI library. More recently he was appointed Manager, Information Services Group (ISG), a new unit that encompasses developing outbound content for both Forecast International and Military Periscope.
