Stage Set for Business Jet Recovery – White Paper

Data from Forecast International’s innovative Platinum Forecast System® 4.0 show that a total of 12,000 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2019 through 2033.  The Connecticut-based market research firm estimates the value of this production at $364.5 billion in 2019 U.S. dollars.

Forecast International projects that annual business jet production will rise from 645 aircraft in 2018 to 725 in 2019 and 775 in 2020.  Although cyclical economic factors are expected to result in slightly declining production in the 2021-2022 timeframe, annual production is expected to rebound in 2023, with annual output rising steadily to 899 aircraft by 2030.

Annual production of light and midsize business jets increased almost steadily from 2014 through 2018.  At the same time, though, production of larger-capacity, long-range jets declined each year.

In the next couple of years, production ramp-ups of a number of new models will help finally drive production of larger, long-range business jets to higher levels.  Meanwhile, production of smaller jets should continue to increase.

Textron Aviation subsidiary Cessna is projected to lead the business jet market in unit production during the 15-year forecast period with a 24.2 percent market share on production of 2,898 aircraft.  Bombardier is projected to be second with a 19.8 percent share, based on forecast production of 2,374 business jets.  Gulfstream takes the third spot, with production of 2,193 aircraft and an 18.3 percent share.  Embraer is fourth, with production of 2,070 aircraft, a 17.3 percent market share.  Fifth place goes to Dassault, on production of 1,021 aircraft for an 8.5 percent share.

When the market is measured in monetary value, Gulfstream takes the lead with production worth $120 billion for a 32.9 percent market share.  Bombardier is projected to generate $109 billion in production value for a 29.9 percent share.  Dassault’s market share is estimated at 13.8 percent, with $50.3 billion worth of production.  Cessna is projected to be fourth, with production worth $38.1 billion, a 10.5 percent share of the market.  Embraer is projected to capture a 7.7 percent market share, representing $28 billion worth of business jet production.

For full details, please download the FREE Business Jet Aircraft Market white paper here:

The paper is excerpted from Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System 4.0 and its Civil Aircraft Forecast, which includes more than 70 detailed reports covering all facets of the fixed-wing commercial and private aviation industries. Four Market Segment Analyses provide in-depth examination of the markets for Large Commercial Jet Transports, Regional Aircraft, Business Jets, and General Aviation/Utility Aircraft.

About Richard Pettibone

A military history enthusiast, Richard began at Forecast International as editor of the World Weapons Weekly newsletter. As the Internet grew in importance as a research tool, he helped design the company's Forecast Intelligence Center and currently coordinates the EMarket Alert newsletters for clients. Richard also manages social media efforts, including two new blogs: Defense & Security Monitor, covering defense systems and international issues, and Flight Plan, which focuses on commercial aviation and space systems. For over 30 years, Richard has authored the Defense & Aerospace Companies, Volume I (North America) and Volume II (International) services. The two books provide detailed data on major aerospace and defense contractors. He also edits the International Contractors service, a database that tracks all the contractors involved in the programs covered in the FI library. More recently he was appointed Manager, Information Services Group (ISG), a new unit that encompasses developing outbound content for both Forecast International and Military Periscope.

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