After a four-year hiatus, a new Boeing 787 Dreamliner landed in Shanghai. The delivery to Juneyao Airlines could pave the way for the resumption of 737 MAX deliveries, which have been stalled since 2019, with the Chinese government citing concerns over the aircraft’s safety.
Restarting MAX deliveries would be a boon for Boeing, offering it the chance to clear its inventory of aircraft stored while awaiting delivery to Chinese customers. It would also allow Boeing to tap into China’s growing aviation market, expected to account for 20% of global demand by 2042. However, the trade relationship between China and the United States remains complex and evolving. The Biden Administration is less hostile to Chinese trade than the Trump Administration, but it has not been in a hurry to remove tariffs imposed by the prior administration.
The resumption of 787s to China is one sign of a potential warming in trade relations between the two countries, but hurdles to restarting deliveries of 737 MAX to China remain. Boeing must still secure final approval from Chinese regulators to resume deliveries, including the National Development and Reform Commission. Also, individual MAX deliveries will require approval from each airline.
Recent customer acceptance flights for a 737 MAX operated by China Southern Airlines are a good sign for Boeing. Chinese airlines have not yet fully embraced a locally-made competitor, the COMAC C919, and excluding the 737 MAX from the Chinese market removes competitive pressures on Airbus to sell its A320 family to Chinese airlines at the lowest possible price. Chinese airline executives are not the obstacle here, The Chinese government will need to decide for itself whether to allow MAX deliveries to restart in China. .
A lifelong aviation enthusiast, Douglas Royce is currently co-editor of four of Forecast International's Market Intelligence Services: Civil Aircraft Forecast, Military Aircraft Forecast, Rotorcraft Forecast, and Aviation Gas Turbine Forecast. As such, he plays a key role in many important projects that involve market sizing and forecasting for various segments of the world aerospace industry, as well as demand for related systems.
