Embraer’s commercial aircraft delivery progress for 2026 showed a notable improvement in March, effectively stabilizing the manufacturer’s trajectory after a concerning start to the year. By the end of the first quarter, the manufacturer was in line with its historical quarterly delivery pace. This recovery, which was driven primarily by the E175’s strong performance, effectively mitigates concerns over January’s limited output and aligns the company with its 2026 objectives. However, a closer look at the delivery mix suggests that execution risk remains elevated for the remainder of the year.
While our yearly forecast is contingent upon the E2 family accounting for 60% of total annual deliveries, the platform is currently trailing its required cadence. The E175 reached 14.7% of our annual forecast, whereas the E2 achieved only 7.8%, indicating a temporary reliance on the E175 platform to maintain the historical delivery pace. To remain on pace to reach its annual delivery target, Embraer will require a significant acceleration in E2 output during the second quarter. Although the manufacturer’s year-end-weighted pattern allows for recovery later in the year, meeting our forecast target depends heavily on the E2 family successfully transitioning into its role as the primary driver of delivery volume for the year.
To get a more detailed, month‑by‑month breakdown of commercial aircraft OEM activity, including production, orders, and delivery execution risk, visit https://figlobalintelligence.com/commercial-aircraft-oem-intelligence-brief/
With diverse experience in the commercial aviation industry, Grant joins Forecast International as the Lead Analyst for Commercial Aerospace. He began his career at the Boeing Company, where he worked as a geospatial analyst, designing and building aeronautical navigation charts for Department of Defense flight operations.
Grant then joined a boutique global aviation consulting firm that focused on the aviation finance and leasing industry. In this role he conducted valuations and market analysis of commercial aircraft and engines for banks, private equity firms, lessors and airlines for the purposes of trading, collateralizing and securitizing commercial aviation assets.
Grant has a deep passion for the aviation industry and is also a pilot. He holds his Commercial Pilots License and Instrument Rating in addition to being a FAA Certified Flight Instructor.
