The aggressive deployment schedule for China’s ambitious Guowang megaconstellation, aiming for approximately 13,000 satellites across diverse orbital altitudes, necessitates a substantial and sustained increase in the nation’s launch cadence. While China has demonstrated a robust launch record in 2025 with 33 orbital attempts to date, the sheer volume of satellites planned for Guowang presents a significant logistical and operational challenge.
The fourth batch of Guowang satellites launched in June 2025 and although total numbers of satellites launched per mission is hard to ascertain, “The first group of Guowang satellites, also launched on a Long March 5B with a YZ-2 upper stage, consisted of 10 satellites. The SAST mission patch included 10 stars, which in Chinese can be used as synonymous with satellite.” With ten satellites assumed per launch (40 have therefore launched as of writing), China will have to switch into high gear as the country has until 2032 to launch half of the Guowang constellation. In comparison, Starlink launches orbit approximately 25 satellites per launch and with the earlier V1.0 and V1.5 that number was around 50 per launch.
Therefore, to meet the demanding timelines for Guowang’s global broadband and data services, China will likely need to significantly scale up its rocket production, streamline launch processing, and potentially introduce new, higher-cadence launch vehicles or multi-satellite deployment capabilities. The success of this endeavor will hinge not only on consistent launch execution but also on optimizing ground infrastructure and ensuring the long-term sustainability of such a vast orbital deployment.
The current reliance on various Long March series rockets, including the Long March 6A, 8A, and the more voluminous 5B, indicates a diversified launch strategy, but the fragmented nature of previous upper stages, as seen with the Qianfan satellites, underscores a need for enhanced reliability and debris mitigation in parallel with increased frequency.
Carter Palmer has long held a keen interest in military matters and aviation. As a FI's space systems analyst he is responsible for updating the reports and analyses within the Space Systems Forecast – Launch Vehicles & Manned Platforms and Space Systems Forecast – Satellites & Spacecraft products.
