Narrowbody Production Gains Momentum /// 787 Inventory Clearing Spikes Widebody Lead Times
For the purposes of this article, Forecast International considers an aircraft to be “produced” once it completes its first test flight, and “delivered” when it is contractually handed over to the customer.
Production by Market Segment
Total commercial aircraft production in March 2026 reached 128 aircraft, marking a notable increase from the 106 units produced in February and signaling a stronger push into the end of the first quarter. Production remained heavily concentrated in the narrowbody segment, which accounted for 107 aircraft, compared to 85 in the previous month. Widebody output totaled 16 aircraft, a slight decrease from the 19 recorded in February. Regional jet production reached three aircraft, while turboprop production saw its first significant activity of the year with two units recorded. On a year-to-date basis, total commercial aircraft production reached 327 aircraft through the first three months of 2026. Narrowbodies continue to dominate output at 268 aircraft, while widebody production stands at 51 aircraft as of March 31st. Regional jet and turboprop production remain secondary, totaling five and three aircraft respectively for the year thus far.
- Production data represents the actual number of aircraft produced in March 2026. Forecast International considers an aircraft produced upon its first flight. This may differ from an OEM’s definition of produced.
Average Production-to-Delivery Lead Times
Average production-to-delivery lead times showed a general increase in March compared to February, reflecting inventory clearing for some OEMs and program-specific cycles. Narrowbody aircraft averaged 24 days from production to delivery, a slight increase from the 22 days recorded in February. Widebody lead times were pushed up significantly to an average of 46 days, nearly double the 26 days seen in the previous month. This increase was primarily driven by the 787 program, which delivered several aircraft that had been held in inventory with production-to-delivery lead times of around 180 days, and in some instances, 250 days. Turboprop lead times averaged 53 days, and while lower than the single data point from February, this figure reflects the higher production-to-delivery lead time that is typical of ATR. No regional jet lead-time data was recorded during the month due to a lack of paired production and delivery events. Across all segments, the weighted average lead time for March stood at 41 days.
Projected Deliveries
Forecast International estimates that Airbus and Boeing combined delivered approximately 99 aircraft in March 2026, up from the 85 estimated in February. However, delivery performance remains very weak relative to production targets, particularly for Airbus. Airbus delivered an estimated 54 aircraft, led by 35 A320neo-family narrowbodies and eight A220s. While the eight A350 deliveries look strong on the surface compared to the two delivered in February, the program still is not stabilized at its target of six aircraft. This volume represents a spillover in inventory from previous months where very few units were delivered. Additionally, though A320neo family deliveries rose from 23 to 35, they remained weak in the context of the overall ramp-up schedule and the program’s current target production rate of 50 aircraft per month. Boeing delivered an estimated 45 aircraft during the month, a decline from the 52 delivered in February. This total was anchored by 33 737 MAX aircraft, a drop from the 43 recorded last month, while widebody deliveries included two 767s, three 777s, and seven 787s.
Notes:
- Delivery data is the expected number that Boeing and Airbus will report in their March 2026 Orders and Deliveries summary and is based on Forecast International’s internal research. Numbers are not official and are not provided by Airbus or Boeing.
- A320neo numbers include all variants for the family; A319neo, A320neo and A321neo
To get a more detailed, month‑by‑month breakdown of commercial aircraft OEM activity, including production, orders, and delivery execution risk, visit https://figlobalintelligence.com/commercial-aircraft-oem-intelligence-brief/
With diverse experience in the commercial aviation industry, Grant joins Forecast International as the Lead Analyst for Commercial Aerospace. He began his career at the Boeing Company, where he worked as a geospatial analyst, designing and building aeronautical navigation charts for Department of Defense flight operations.
Grant then joined a boutique global aviation consulting firm that focused on the aviation finance and leasing industry. In this role he conducted valuations and market analysis of commercial aircraft and engines for banks, private equity firms, lessors and airlines for the purposes of trading, collateralizing and securitizing commercial aviation assets.
Grant has a deep passion for the aviation industry and is also a pilot. He holds his Commercial Pilots License and Instrument Rating in addition to being a FAA Certified Flight Instructor.
