Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production doubled in 2023 but remains a small fraction of overall renewable fuel output. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that SAF production reached 600 million liters in 2023, double the amount produced in 2022. However, this represents only 3% of all renewable fuel produced worldwide.
IATA projects that SAF production will triple in 2024, but it will still only account for a small portion of aviation’s fuel needs. The organization estimates that even if SAF production tripled in 2024, it would still only be able to provide 0.53% of the aviation industry’s need for fuel.
IATA notes that other renewable fuels coming online this year will compete for production capacity, limiting limiting the supply of SAF and preventing its price from falling to a price competitive with fossil fuels. IATA direction-general Willie Walsh says that aviation needs renewable fuel producers to allocate 25% to 30% of their capacity to SAF to reach the aviation industry’s net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050.
IATA also argues that government should support the development of new SAF production pathways that rely more on biological and agricultural waste products than feedstocks, given that feedstocks are also relied upon to produce food.
Douglas Royce covers the aviation gas turbine and military markets at Forecast International, a market research firm that forecasts annual production across a wide range of aerospace and defense systems.
