By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.
Data from Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System® 4.0 indicate that 30,171 large commercial jet transports will be produced in the 15-year period from 2019 through 2033. The value of this production is estimated at $4.91 trillion in constant 2019 U.S. dollars.
Our market projections indicate that yearly production of large commercial jetliners will increase through most of the 15-year forecast period, rising from 1,691 aircraft in 2019 to 2,127 aircraft in 2029. Some minor retrenchment in annual build rates is predicted for the 2030-2033 timeframe.
Airbus and Boeing are projected to divide the market almost equally over the course of the 15-year forecast period. Boeing is forecast to produce 14,518 large commercial airliners during the 2019-2033 timeframe, for a 48.1 percent share of the market. Airbus is projected to build 14,380 aircraft, for a market share of 47.7 percent. The remainder of the forecast production consists of aircraft such as the COMAC C919 from China and the Irkut MC-21 from Russia.
For the most part, this output will be utilized to replenish and expand the fleets of the world’s airlines. The world airline industry is very healthy at present, having now enjoyed nine consecutive years of net profits. Throughout this period, carriers have benefited from rising air traffic, and have generally maintained a measure of discipline in adding capacity to meet the increasing passenger demand.
Meanwhile, Airbus and Boeing have continually evolved their product lines to meet the needs of this global industry. The next round of product decisions at the two companies will likely involve the mid-range of the market: namely, the space between the largest narrowbodies and such small widebodies as the A330, 767, and 787. It is into this market space that Boeing is contemplating the launch of an all-new airliner known as the New Midsize Aircraft (NMA).
Forecast International representatives will be available during the Paris Air Show (Hall 3, Booth AB 132) to demonstrate the company’s extensive line of Aerospace & Defense Market Intelligence products, including Platinum Forecast System 4.0.
Platinum Forecast System 4.0 is an interactive and customizable analytical system incorporating a massive, continuously updated relational database. Users of Platinum 4.0 can quickly generate accurate and detailed answers to their most pressing market inquiries. The system works by leveraging the power of advanced information technology and combining it with the capabilities of the Forecast International team of expert analysts.
A military history enthusiast, Richard began at Forecast International as editor of the World Weapons Weekly newsletter. As the Internet grew in importance as a research tool, he helped design the company's Forecast Intelligence Center and currently coordinates the EMarket Alert newsletters for clients. Richard also manages social media efforts, including two new blogs: Defense & Security Monitor, covering defense systems and international issues, and Flight Plan, which focuses on commercial aviation and space systems. For over 30 years, Richard has authored the Defense & Aerospace Companies, Volume I (North America) and Volume II (International) services. The two books provide detailed data on major aerospace and defense contractors. He also edits the International Contractors service, a database that tracks all the contractors involved in the programs covered in the FI library. More recently he was appointed Manager, Information Services Group (ISG), a new unit that encompasses developing outbound content for both Forecast International and Military Periscope.
