By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.
Although business jet production is unlikely to match the skyrocketing output seen in the mid-2000s any time soon, Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System® shows that a total of 13,252 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2016 through 2030. The value of this production is estimated at a staggering $360 billion in FY16 U.S. dollars.
Our projections indicate that business jet production, following a 5 percent decline in 2016, will increase each year from 2017 through 2020. While a brief, two-year cyclical downturn is anticipated for the 2021-2022 timeframe, the market is projected to rebound the following year, with a consistent rise in production from 2023 through the remainder of the forecast timeframe. Indeed, the last eight years of the forecast period will see the value of production top $210 billion, or more than 58 percent of the 15-year value total.
North American customers have begun returning to the business jet market, shaking off economic and political concerns that had been causing considerable buyer hesitation. So far, this has largely benefitted the market’s light and mid-size jet segments, which tend to be heavily populated with U.S. buyers.
Meanwhile, the long-range and large-cabin jet segments tend to be more diverse geographically, and economic slowdowns in key regions such as China, Latin America, and Russia have resulted in weaker demand for these larger jets. However, economic improvement in these regions, as well as increased demand from North American customers, will help boost the market for large-cabin and long-range jets over the longer term.
Overall, North America is the largest regional market for business jets, and is expected to remain so throughout the forecast timeframe. Europe will continue to be the second largest market for business jets, but with a narrowing edge over Asia.
In terms of manufacturer market shares, Textron Aviation’s Cessna business unit is projected to lead the market in unit production during the 2016-2030 timeframe, with a 26.7 percent share, followed by Embraer, Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault. When the market is measured in terms of monetary value, the 15-year projections show the same five companies remaining at the top, but with the manufacturers that specialize in larger, longer-range jets taking the lead. Gulfstream is projected to lead in value of production, with a 33.1 percent share, followed by Bombardier, Dassault, Cessna, and Embraer.
Please feel free to use this content with Forecast International and analyst attributions, along with a link to the article. Contact Ray Peterson at +1 (203) 426-0800 or via email at ray.peterson@forecast1.com for additional analysis.
The Platinum Forecast System® enables users to access 10 years of historical production data as well as 15-year production forecasts. Users have instant access to updated forecasts, and are also able to select unique criteria in order to create and evaluate distinct market segments. With the system, users are able to create customized assessments that quickly identify both market risks and future opportunities.
A military history enthusiast, Richard began at Forecast International as editor of the World Weapons Weekly newsletter. As the Internet grew in importance as a research tool, he helped design the company's Forecast Intelligence Center and currently coordinates the EMarket Alert newsletters for clients. Richard also manages social media efforts, including two new blogs: Defense & Security Monitor, covering defense systems and international issues, and Flight Plan, which focuses on commercial aviation and space systems. For over 30 years, Richard has authored the Defense & Aerospace Companies, Volume I (North America) and Volume II (International) services. The two books provide detailed data on major aerospace and defense contractors. He also edits the International Contractors service, a database that tracks all the contractors involved in the programs covered in the FI library. More recently he was appointed Manager, Information Services Group (ISG), a new unit that encompasses developing outbound content for both Forecast International and Military Periscope.
