China Eastern Airlines has agreed to order another 100 COMAC C919 narrowbody airliners. The airline is the launch customer for the C919 and currently has a handful of aircraft in service.
Deliveries under this new agreement will begin in 2024, with COMAC delivering five aircraft during the year. China Eastern will take another ten annually during 2025-27, then 15 per year in 2028-2030. COMAC will deliver the last batch of 20 aircraft in 2031.
The airline valued the new deal at around $9.9 billion at list prices but noted it had bought the aircraft at a substantial discount.
The new order is good news for the C919 program, but I don’t think it changes the forecast for the aircraft. I’ve projected a gradual production ramp up to around 60-70 aircraft per year by 2026. This seems conservative, but keep a couple of things in mind:
First, the C919 is competing in the Chinese market against the Airbus A320neo family and Boeing 737 MAX, two very strong competitors. COMAC didn’t target an underserved market segment when it launched the C919 – it dove into the most competitive segment in aerospace with no unique innovations in its design.
Second, Airbus and Boeing have a huge head start in building out maintenance and operational support functions for their aircraft. COMAC has a tiny commercial aircraft business right now, and even local operators have to worry that their aircraft could be grounded by a lack of spare parts or services due to COMAC’s lack of experience in supporting airliners in commercial service. This problem helped kill overseas demand for the Russian Superjet program years ago. It will take years for COMAC to build a rock-solid reputation for reliable service and support. If given the choice, I think most Chinese airlines would stick with a Western model.
However, commercial factors aren’t driving the C919 program. The Chinese government wants to build an indigenous capability to produce airliners competitive with those built by Western manufacturers. This is a long-term process, and the C919 will likely end up as an interim aircraft that helps build out China’s aerospace development capability. The Chinese government will make sure local airlines order enough C919s to keep the production line humming for the next 15-20 years, but I remain skeptical about COMAC’s plan to build around 150 aircraft per year by around 2028.
A lifelong aviation enthusiast, Douglas Royce is currently co-editor of four of Forecast International's Market Intelligence Services: Civil Aircraft Forecast, Military Aircraft Forecast, Rotorcraft Forecast, and Aviation Gas Turbine Forecast. As such, he plays a key role in many important projects that involve market sizing and forecasting for various segments of the world aerospace industry, as well as demand for related systems.
