By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.
Data from Forecast International’s innovative Platinum Forecast System® 3.1 show that a total of 12,282 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031. We estimate the value of this production at $354 billion in 2017 U.S. dollars.
Annual business jet production is projected to rise from 647 aircraft in 2017 to 799 in 2020. Although cyclical economic factors are expected to result in slightly declining production in the 2021-2022 timeframe, the market is forecast to quickly rebound in 2023, with annual output rising steadily to 957 aircraft by the year 2030.
Some segments of the business jet market have already been experiencing growth, as annual production of light and mid-size jets has risen since 2013. This growth is expected to continue in the years ahead.
The business jet sector is a tale of two markets, though, as production of larger-capacity jets, such as large-cabin and long-range models, has declined since 2013. The market for these aircraft is more geographically diverse than is the market for smaller jets. Economic sluggishness in certain key regions, combined with market saturation in North America, has contributed to weak demand in the segment.
The market for larger business jets will improve in coming years, due to continuing improvement in global economic conditions, service entry and initial production ramp-ups of a number of new aircraft, and an increasing need for operators to replace older aircraft.
The Platinum Forecast System® 3.1 data also include projections of manufacturer market shares, among a wealth of other data. Textron Aviation subsidiary Cessna is projected to lead the business jet market in unit production during the 2017-2031 forecast period on production of 3,178 aircraft, representing 25.9 percent of the market. Gulfstream is projected to be second, based on forecast production of 2,277 business jets, for a market share of 18.5 percent. Embraer is third, with production of 2,255 aircraft and a share of 18.4 percent.
When the market is measured in monetary value of production, Gulfstream takes the lead. The Georgia-based company is forecast to produce $121 billion worth of business jets, for a market share of 34 percent. Bombardier is projected to generate $87 billion in production value, for a 24.5 percent share. Dassault’s market share is estimated at 15.3 percent, with $54.4 billion worth of business jet production.
Please feel free to use this content with Forecast International and analyst attributions, along with a link to the article. Contact Ray Peterson at +1 (203) 426-0800 or via email at ray.peterson@forecast1.com for additional analysis.
The Forecast International Civil Aircraft service covers all facets of the fixed-wing commercial and private aviation industry. It includes more than 70 detailed reports, complete with production forecasts on individual civil aircraft families. Four Market Segment Analyses provide in-depth examination of the markets for Large Commercial Jet Transports, Regional Aircraft, Business Jets, and General Aviation/Utility Aircraft. Included in the reports are production forecasts, a Forecast Rationale detailing the basis for the forecast, the aircraft’s price range and technical specifications, a program history, and recent developments.
A military history enthusiast, Richard began at Forecast International as editor of the World Weapons Weekly newsletter. As the Internet grew in importance as a research tool, he helped design the company's Forecast Intelligence Center and currently coordinates the EMarket Alert newsletters for clients. Richard also manages social media efforts, including two new blogs: Defense & Security Monitor, covering defense systems and international issues, and Flight Plan, which focuses on commercial aviation and space systems. For over 30 years, Richard has authored the Defense & Aerospace Companies, Volume I (North America) and Volume II (International) services. The two books provide detailed data on major aerospace and defense contractors. He also edits the International Contractors service, a database that tracks all the contractors involved in the programs covered in the FI library. More recently he was appointed Manager, Information Services Group (ISG), a new unit that encompasses developing outbound content for both Forecast International and Military Periscope.
