Orders Soften for Both OEMs as Airbus Deliveries Pick Up in July /// Air Lease Cancels Order for Seven A350 Freighters
Airbus A350F. Image – Airbus
July 2025 Summary
Airbus had a strong month in July, while Boeing deliveries slowed. Boeing handed over 48 aircraft in July, compared to 67 aircraft handed over by Airbus. Airbus needs to significantly increase production and deliveries in the remaining five months of the year to meet its 2025 delivery target of 820 aircraft. This means delivering an average of over 89 aircraft per month to hit this goal, after delivering an average of 53 aircraft per month in the first seven months of the year. While this may be difficult to achieve, Airbus has proven in previous years that it is able to ramp up deliveries in the last months of the year to meet its delivery targets. Boeing on the other hand, does not currently have a delivery target for 2025 as it continues to focus on increased quality and stabilizing production rates, particularly for the MAX.
Notes:
- A320neo numbers include all variants for the family; A319neo, A320neo and A321neo.
- Production rate targets do not represent the actual number of aircraft produced in July 2025. Instead, they are generalized figures based on current monthly production estimates derived from OEM guidance and internal research conducted by Forecast International.
Deliveries
The 48 Boeing jets delivered in July included 37 737 MAXs, one 767, two 777s, and eight 787s. Boeing’s monthly deliveries have generally remained in the 40–45 aircraft range this year, with June standing out as an exception at 60 aircraft. Additionally, the MAX program is showing positive momentum, with production stabilizing at around 38 aircraft per month. Boeing is also aligning MAX production and delivery rates as it works to deliver its remaining inventory of MAXs by year’s end.
As for its remaining programs, Boeing delivered 45 787s from January 1 through July 31 and a total of eight 787s in the month of July. The manufacturer continues to aim for a production rate of seven per month by the end of the year and ten per month by 2026. Forecast International believes that it is increasingly likely Boeing will hit seven aircraft per month by the end of the year, given that the company has produced above its target rate of five aircraft for two consecutive months, while also delivering aircraft from its remaining inventory.
Meanwhile, Boeing has delivered a total of 22 777s through July, or an average of around three aircraft per month, in line with the manufacturer’s production target rate of three 777s per month. Additionally, the first 777X delivery is still scheduled for 2026 to Lufthansa. The aircraft has not yet been certified, though Boeing continues to make progress toward achieving certification. The company currently expects approval by the end of this year, however it is possible that certification slips into early 2026.
In July, Airbus delivered 67 aircraft, including five A220s, 54 from the A320neo family, two A330s and six A350s. Although A320neo family production and deliveries remained below Airbus’ target of 50 per month in the first half of the year, the manufacturer is beginning to show signs of momentum as it ramps up production to meet its delivery goal for the year. Increasing deliveries of neo aircraft will be critical for Airbus to achieve its 2025 delivery goal, as the aircraft will shoulder an even greater share of the burden in meeting the company’s full-year target. This comes amid A350 production being capped at six aircraft per month and the A220 program showing no clear path to reaching its planned rate of 14 per month by 2026.
For the A220 program, Airbus delivered five aircraft in July, following 12 deliveries in June. Many news outlets celebrated June’s total as “more than double” the five delivered in May, but these reports overlook the program’s underlying dynamics. The 12 deliveries in June were largely carryover from aircraft produced in May, as A220 production has stabilized at around eight aircraft per month and has yet to exceed that rate this year. This suggests the June figure is unlikely to represent a sudden and sustained surge in output some reports imply. Even so, production stability is a positive sign, and Forecast International expects production and deliveries to increase, though not enough to reach Airbus’s stated target of 14 aircraft per month by 2026.
On the widebody side, Airbus delivered six A350s in July, bringing total 2025 deliveries to just 27 as of July 31, an average of slightly under four aircraft per month, well below the manufacturer’s targeted production rate of six per month. Forecast International views the A350 program as currently struggling from both a production and deliveries standpoint. Airbus’ plans to increase output to ten aircraft per month by 2026 are no longer realistic, and we believe the manufacturer will need to focus on stabilizing production and deliveries at around six per month for the remainder of the year before attempting to ramp up further.
Orders and Backlog
In July, Boeing recorded 31 gross orders, comprising 30 for the 737 MAX and one for the 787. While Boeing’s deliveries continue to trail Airbus’s for the year, it has surpassed its rival in total orders through the end of July, securing 699 gross orders compared to Airbus’s 501. This lead has been driven largely by strong demand for the 737 MAX and record widebody orders, particularly for the 787, which has logged 243 gross orders this year, accounting for 34.8% of Boeing’s total.
Airbus recorded strong orders in June during the Paris Air Show, but in July the company logged only seven gross orders, signaling a slowdown after the June surge. While Airbus remains in a stronger position than Boeing in terms of production and deliveries, Boeing has outpaced it in orders for 2025. For example, the A320neo family has secured just 294 gross orders so far this year, compared to 373 for the 737 MAX, and Airbus has received roughly half as many widebody orders as Boeing. However, we see no cause for concern, as in the current environment what truly matters is whether manufacturers can fulfill these order commitments—a contest in which Airbus is clearly ahead.
- For consistency, this article does not include Boeing’s ASC 606 accounting adjustments and considers net orders as gross orders minus cancellations.
- Airbus backlog numbers do not include A320ceo or A330-200 ghost orders.
- Boeing backlog numbers do not include 737-700, 737-800 or 777-300ER ghost orders.
- A320neo numbers include all variants for the family; A319neo, A320neo and A321neo
As of July 31, 2025, Airbus reported a backlog of 8,678 jets, excluding the A320ceo family and A330-200, with 7,634 or 88.0 percent of this backlog consisting of A220 and A320neo family narrowbodies. Meanwhile, Boeing’s total unfilled orders before ASC 606 adjustments stood at 6,563 aircraft, excluding the 737-700, 737-800, and 777-300ER, with 4,862 or 74.0 percent being 737 MAXs. Airbus’s backlog represents 10.6 years of production based on Forecast International’s 2025 production estimates, while Boeing’s backlog would last approximately 11.5 years.
With diverse experience in the commercial aviation industry, Grant joins Forecast International as the Lead Analyst for Commercial Aerospace. He began his career at the Boeing Company, where he worked as a geospatial analyst, designing and building aeronautical navigation charts for Department of Defense flight operations.
Grant then joined a boutique global aviation consulting firm that focused on the aviation finance and leasing industry. In this role he conducted valuations and market analysis of commercial aircraft and engines for banks, private equity firms, lessors and airlines for the purposes of trading, collateralizing and securitizing commercial aviation assets.
Grant has a deep passion for the aviation industry and is also a pilot. He holds his Commercial Pilots License and Instrument Rating in addition to being a FAA Certified Flight Instructor.
