Boeing 737 MAX – Image – Boeing
There are rumblings within the industry that Boeing is evaluating a potential 737 MAX production rate of 63 aircraft per month by 2028, a level that would represent a meaningful step up from the company’s current long-term target of 52 aircraft per month and signal growing confidence in the program’s longer-term trajectory.
The current FAA-approved production rate for the 737 MAX stands at 42 aircraft per month, although we view the program as being operationally stabilized closer to 38 aircraft per month. This distinction is important, as Boeing has not yet demonstrated sustained stability at the 42-per-month level, even before attempting further rate increases.
The path to a 63-per-month rate by 2028 would be ambitious. Under a best-case scenario, Boeing would need to secure FAA approval for incremental increases of roughly five aircraft per month every six months between 2026 and 2028, while also successfully stabilizing production at each intermediate rate before moving higher. While such an outcome is not impossible, it would require near-perfect execution from the manufacturer.
However, a 63 aircraft per-month production rate is structurally viable based on the size of the existing order book. As of November 30th, Boeing held 4,774 737 MAX aircraft on its backlog, which represents approximately 6.3 years of production at a sustained rate of 63 aircraft per month. Forecast International is not yet projecting a 63-per-month rate, but our analysis suggests that demand supports this level over the long term, assuming execution risks can be addressed.
For a deeper look at the 737 MAX’s recovery path and Forecast International’s forward-looking outlook for the program, visit our website to learn more about our program-level analysis and proprietary production forecasts.
https://www.forecastinternational.com/fistore/prod.cfm?FISSYS_RECNO=18&title=Civil-Aircraft-Forecast
With diverse experience in the commercial aviation industry, Grant joins Forecast International as the Lead Analyst for Commercial Aerospace. He began his career at the Boeing Company, where he worked as a geospatial analyst, designing and building aeronautical navigation charts for Department of Defense flight operations.
Grant then joined a boutique global aviation consulting firm that focused on the aviation finance and leasing industry. In this role he conducted valuations and market analysis of commercial aircraft and engines for banks, private equity firms, lessors and airlines for the purposes of trading, collateralizing and securitizing commercial aviation assets.
Grant has a deep passion for the aviation industry and is also a pilot. He holds his Commercial Pilots License and Instrument Rating in addition to being a FAA Certified Flight Instructor.
