By Douglas Royce, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.
Boeing delivered the first 737 MAX 8 narrowbody airliner on May 16. The aircraft was handed over in Seattle. The Malaysia-based carrier will be the first airline to put the newly re-engined model into service.
The use of new CFM LEAP 1-1B engines, along with aerodynamic tweaks to the airframe and new winglets, offers a substantial increase in the 737’s fuel efficiency. Production of the 737 family, which now includes both the current models and the MAX family, is set to climb to 47 aircraft per month in 2017. The manufacturer plans another increase, to 52 aircraft per month, in 2018, followed by yet another increase, to 57 aircraft per month, in 2019.
Boeing justifies these rate increases by pointing to the enormous firm order backlog for the 737 family. At the end of April 2017, Boeing was sitting on orders for over 4,478 aircraft, including 3,714 orders for 737 MAX models. The MAX’s share of the backlog stood at almost 83 percent. The MAX models are the future at Boeing, and production of the current models powered by the CFM56-7 engine will likely end in 2019.
In the past few years our 737 forecast has largely tracked Boeing’s production plans, because the manufacturer has consistently followed through on announced rate increases. However, we believe that there will be a softening in order intake in the near term that will lead Boeing and Airbus to pull back slightly from their current production targets. We believe that Boeing will increase production to 55 aircraft per month in 2019 rather than 57 as planned.
Please feel free to use this content with Forecast International and analyst attributions, along with a link to the article. Contact Ray Peterson at +1 (203) 426-0800 or via email at ray.peterson@forecast1.com for additional analysis.
The Forecast International Civil Aircraft service covers all facets of the fixed-wing commercial and private aviation industry. It includes more than 70 detailed reports, complete with production forecasts on individual civil aircraft families. Four Market Segment Analyses provide in-depth examination of the markets for Large Commercial Jet Transports, Regional Aircraft, Business Jets, and General Aviation/Utility Aircraft. Included in the reports are production forecasts, a Forecast Rationale detailing the basis for the forecast, the aircraft’s price range and technical specifications, a program history, and recent developments.
A military history enthusiast, Richard began at Forecast International as editor of the World Weapons Weekly newsletter. As the Internet grew in importance as a research tool, he helped design the company's Forecast Intelligence Center and currently coordinates the EMarket Alert newsletters for clients. Richard also manages social media efforts, including two new blogs: Defense & Security Monitor, covering defense systems and international issues, and Flight Plan, which focuses on commercial aviation and space systems. For over 30 years, Richard has authored the Defense & Aerospace Companies, Volume I (North America) and Volume II (International) services. The two books provide detailed data on major aerospace and defense contractors. He also edits the International Contractors service, a database that tracks all the contractors involved in the programs covered in the FI library. More recently he was appointed Manager, Information Services Group (ISG), a new unit that encompasses developing outbound content for both Forecast International and Military Periscope.
