WASHINGTON D.C. – Ongoing supply chain challenges at Airbus will delay the launch of its A350 freighter until 2027. Additionally, the company is unlikely to increase the production rate of its A350 passenger jets beyond six aircraft per month this year, despite previous expectations to produce approximately nine A350s per month in 2025, increasing to ten per month by 2026. The supply chain disruptions stem from issues at Spirit AeroSystems, which supplies several key components for the A350.
In 2018, Airbus was ramping up production to meet growing airline orders, reaching a rate of approximately 10 aircraft per month. This trend continued into 2019 as the A350 gained popularity among long-haul carriers. However, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a sharp decline in international air travel, prompting Airbus to cut production to around five aircraft per month by mid-2020. As international travel demand gradually recovered, Airbus aimed to increase output again, targeting a rate of six per month in 2021. However, delivery delays and supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic continue to hinder the ramp-up, leading to a slower-than-expected growth in production in the post-pandemic environment.
Forecast International’s 2025 production forecast for the A350 was significantly more conservative than Airbus’ original guidance, projecting 78 A350 deliveries for the year compared to Airbus’ target of 108 (9 per month). We maintained this cautious outlook, anticipating that industry-wide supply chain constraints would persist and hinder the production ramp-up, making Airbus’s short-term goals overly ambitious. Airbus’ latest update on A350 production now aligns with our initial forecast, confirming our earlier expectations. In light of this, we have made slight adjustments to our projections to account for A350F deliveries beginning in 2027 and a slightly lower total output. We now expect 73 A350s to be delivered in 2025, a minor revision from our original forecast of 78.
Despite these setbacks, our long-term outlook for A350 production remains positive. We believe Airbus will successfully ramp up production to 12 aircraft per month, driven by strong demand for widebody aircraft and growing international passenger traffic. However, we still expect this production rate to be reached in 2029, slightly later than Airbus’ targeted timeframe of 2028.
Forecast International’s updated Production Forecast for the A350 is currently available on our Platinum Forecast System, and the full A350 report will be available in May.
With diverse experience in the commercial aviation industry, Grant joins Forecast International as the Lead Analyst for Commercial Aerospace. He began his career at the Boeing Company, where he worked as a geospatial analyst, designing and building aeronautical navigation charts for Department of Defense flight operations.
Grant then joined a boutique global aviation consulting firm that focused on the aviation finance and leasing industry. In this role he conducted valuations and market analysis of commercial aircraft and engines for banks, private equity firms, lessors and airlines for the purposes of trading, collateralizing and securitizing commercial aviation assets.
Grant has a deep passion for the aviation industry and is also a pilot. He holds his Commercial Pilots License and Instrument Rating in addition to being a FAA Certified Flight Instructor.
