February was another quiet month for commercial aircraft production and orders. Boeing delivered 27 commercial jets compared to Airbus with 49 units. This compares to 28 deliveries for Boeing and 46 for Airbus in February of last year. Year-to-date, Boeing and Airbus have delivered 54 and 79 aircraft compared to 66 each, during the first two months of 2023. As of February, Boeing is 12 deliveries behind compared to last year’s totals to date, while Airbus is 13 deliveries ahead. In 2023, in total, Boeing and Airbus delivered 528 and 735 aircraft compared to 480 and 663, respectively, in 2022. In 2023, Airbus won the deliveries crown for the fifth consecutive year.
Following a more than challenging 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021-23 were recovery years for the two largest commercial plane makers. Boeing still has quite a way to go before setting new all-time company deliveries records, whereas Airbus could be back to pre-pandemic levels already this year. In 2018, before COVID-19 and the first 737 MAX grounding, Boeing delivered 806 jets, a level that will likely not be recaptured before the 2025-26 timeframe. Airbus’ record high of 863 shipments was set in 2019, a level that will likely be surpassed in 2025. Also, Airbus is expected to retain their deliveries lead for the foreseeable future due to the company’s comfortable backlog lead over its American rival. Before 2019, Boeing had out-delivered Airbus every year since 2012.
As indicated above, in February, Boeing delivered 27 jets, including 18 737s (17 MAXs and 1 NG), two 767s, and seven 787s. Since June of last year, the 737 program was producing aircraft at an official rate of 31 per month. At the end of 2023, the program completed the transition to 38 aircraft per month. At their Q4 2023 earnings call, Boeing confirmed that the rate of 38 is now in effect. Boeing expects to increase production to approximately 50 737 MAX jets per month in the 2025/26 timeframe. The target of 50 per month compares to the pre-crash/pre-pandemic rate of 52 737s per month in 2018. Last year, it was reported that the company is planning to boost production to 52 jets per month by January 2025. Boeing will open a new 737 MAX production line in Everett in the second half of 2024. The new line is in addition to the three lines currently in place at Renton. For now, in the aftermath of the Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 incident, the program will remain at 38 aircraft per month. Boeing ended the year with 200 737 MAX jets in inventory, down 50 from Q3 2023. Boeing expects most of the inventoried jets to be delivered by the end of 2024. The company is still producing 737 NGs but now only has 15 737-800s remaining in backlog.
The 787 program is currently ramping up production. In January, the 787 production rate was raised to five per month, and more increases will follow until the program reaches the current target of 10 aircraft per month by 2025/26. Boeing ended the year with 60 Dreamliners in inventory, down 15 from Q3 2023.
The 767 program is currently producing jets at a rate of three units per month, a mix of KC-46 tankers (based on the 767-2C) and 767-300 freighters. The 777 program is currently pushing out aircraft at a rate of three per month. Most aircraft in backlog are 777 freighters, with only five 777-300ERs left. The 777 program was expected to get a new addition in late 2023 with the delivery of the first 777X, however, the 777X’s entry into service has been postponed to 2025. Boeing will also launch a new 777X-based freighter, thereby expanding its 777X and cargo portfolio. By the 2025/26 timeframe, Boeing expects to be delivering four 777s per month.
In February, Airbus delivered 49 jets, including six A220s, 39 A320s (all NEO), two A330s, and two A350s. The official A320 production rate is 45 aircraft per month and has remained at this level since the end of 2021. On average, the company delivered 48 A320s per month in 2023 compared to 43 in 2022. Production is currently being increased, however, Airbus is no longer releasing their production rate changes and prefers to announce in what year they will reach a certain rate. At this time, we consider the unofficial A320 production rate to be 48 per month but will keep the rate in our charts and tables at 45 for now. The A320 program is expected to reach a monthly rate of 65 by late 2024. We can therefore expect a series of monthly production increases this year. Also, Airbus is working with its supply chain to increase A320 production to 75 aircraft per month in 2026. The commercial aircraft fleet is getting a new addition this year with the entry-into-service of the A321XLR. The first production aircraft entered into the final assembly line in December 2023 with entry-into-service expected to take place in Q3 2024.
The A220, meanwhile, is being produced at a rate of six aircraft per month, with a monthly production rate of 14 expected by 2026. We also expect Airbus to increase the official A220 rate soon. Airbus is reportedly considering to introduce a stretch version of the A220.
The A330 production rate was increased from two aircraft per month to three at the end of 2022, with an increase to four per month expected this year. The A350 production rate was raised to six per month at the end of 2023 in line with Airbus’ announcements. Airbus expects to produce ten A350s per month by 2026.
Turning to the February orders review, in terms of reported bookings, Boeing had a quiet month at the office. The company booked an order from Royal Brunei Airlines for four 787-9s as well as 10 737 MAXs and one 777F from undisclosed customers. Boeing reported no cancellations in February, resulting in 15 net new orders. Year-to-date, Boeing has accumulated 15 net new orders (18 gross orders), compared to 18 net new orders (60 gross orders) in the first two months of last year. In 2023, Boeing booked a total of 1,314 net new orders (1,456 gross orders) – before ASC 606 changes – compared to 774 net new orders (935 gross orders) in 2022. Please note that for comparison reasons, we do not include Boeing’s so-called ASC 606 accounting adjustments in the numbers reported in this article and regard net new orders as gross orders minus cancellations.
On February 20, Thai Airways announced an order for 45 787-9 Dreamliners as it looks to modernize and grow its widebody fleet and international network. The order was booked in December 2023 but listed under undisclosed customer(s). Also in February, Boeing announced orders for a total of 17 737-based P-8A Poseidon maritime warfare aircraft. The aircraft will be added to Boeing’s books at a later date.
In February, Airbus booked orders from just one customer for a total of two jets (gross orders) and reported no cancellations. An undisclosed customer placed an order for two A350-900s. Year-to-date, Airbus has accumulated 33 net new orders (no cancellations => 33 gross orders), compared to 124 net new orders (136 gross orders) in the first two months of last year. In 2023, Airbus won the orders crown for the fifth consecutive year booking an astounding 2,094 net new orders (2,319 gross orders), compared to 820 net new orders (1,078 gross orders) in 2022.
While order bookings in February were minuscule, during the month Airbus signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Vietjet for the purchase of 20 A330-900s. Also, Taiwan-based STARLUX announced an order for five A350 freighters and three A330neos, which will be booked at a later date. On top of that, American low-cost airline Breeze Airways disclosed an order for 10 additional A220-300s – on top of 80 aircraft of this type already on order.
At the end of February, Airbus reported a backlog of 8,552 jets, of which 7,724, or 90 percent, were A220 and A320ceo/neo family narrowbodies. Airbus’ all-time backlog record was set in January 2024 when the company reported a backlog of 8,599 jets. Both manufacturers will likely set new backlog records this year. By the end of last month, Boeing’s backlog (total unfilled orders before ASC 606 adjustment) was 6,177 aircraft (Boeing’s backlog record of 6,216 aircraft was set in December 2023), of which 4,767, or 77 percent, were 737 NG/MAX narrowbody jets. The number of Airbus aircraft to be built and delivered represents 9.9 years of shipments at the 2019 production level (the pre-pandemic level), or 11.6 years based on the 2023 total. In comparison, Boeing’s backlog would “only” last 7.7 years at the 2018 level (the most recent “normal” year for Boeing), or 11.7 years based on 2023 deliveries. Boeing’s book-to-bill ratio year-to-date, calculated as net new orders divided by deliveries, is 0.28 with Airbus coming in a bit higher at 0.42. Boeing’s book-to-bill ratio last year was 2.49 with Airbus coming in even higher at 2.85. This means that both companies received well over two new firm orders for every aircraft delivered.
2024 Forecast
Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System is a breakthrough in forecasting technology that provides 15-year production forecasts. The author has used the Platinum Forecast System to retrieve the latest delivery forecast data from the Civil Aircraft Forecast product. For 2024, Forecast International’s analysts currently expect Boeing and Airbus to deliver 571 and 797 commercial jets, respectively. Please note that these figures exclude militarized variants of commercial platforms such as Boeing’s P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and KC-46 Pegasus tanker and Airbus’ A330 MRTT tanker.
In its current year guidance, Airbus is scaling up its aircraft production, hoping to deliver 800 planes in 2024, compared to 735 delivered in the previous year. Meanwhile, Boeing decided to forgo issuing their 2024 production forecast as it focuses on safety improvements following the Alaska Airlines incident.
Note: Light green color for production rates means the program is currently transitioning to a higher rate. Green color means the rate has just been increased.
References:
- https://www.forecastinternational.com/platinum.cfm
- http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries
- https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html
- https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2024-02-airbus-reports-full-year-fy-2023-results
- https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2024-02-breeze-airways-discloses-order-for-10-additional-a220-aircraft
- https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2024-02-starlux-orders-a350f-and-more-a330neo-widebodies
- https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2024-02-vietjet-to-order-20-a330neo-widebodies
- https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2024-01-31-Boeing-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-Results
- https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/4Q23-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf
- https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-releases-statements?item=131403
Kasper Oestergaard is an expert in aerospace & defense market intelligence, fuel efficiency in civil aviation, defense spending and defense programs. Mr. Oestergaard has a Master's Degree in Finance and International Business from the Aarhus School of Business - Aarhus University in Denmark. He has written four aerospace & defense market intelligence books as well as numerous articles and white papers about European aerospace & defense topics.
